Will the groundswell of anti-incumbency sweep through Georgia? Has the Tea Party movement affected the elections? Will the Libertarian Party cause a runoff in the Governor’s race? These are questions on the minds of Georgians as they go to the polls for the November 2 primaries. I’ve covered my national predictions on the Liberty Talk blog, so here are my state projections.
An Insider Advantage poll and Rasmussen poll produced similar results – Nathan Deal with a 49-41 lead over Roy Barnes. The Barnes campaign has cracked the piggy bank and thrown out some last minute ads, but this one may be over. The big question is will John Monds, the Libertarian candidate, pull enough votes to force a run-off? I’m predicting a 5% pull for Monds, which will indeed force a run-off, where Deal will have a double digit victory.
Carol Porter has really been painting Casey Cagle in a bad light. She claims the endorsement of RedState.com’s Erick Erickson. It’s not helping in a bid for a seat most Georgians know little about. Most recent polls show Cagle with a double digit lead – Cagle wins.
Incumbent Johnny Isakson has run a fairly clean campaign. I haven’t heard from Michael “Mike” Thurmond much until recently. Isakson is up 59-29 in the latest Rasmussen and I don’t think the DNC has sent much cash Mike’s way. Chuck Donovan, the LP candidate makes an unexpectedly strong showing, but Isakson wins.
Sanford Bishop may have been a little overconfident against Mike Keown. I haven’t seen many ads, and he got a late start in the “I’m not Pelosi” theme among so-called Blue Dogs. The “friends and family” scandal with CBC scholarship funds hurt and Keown has been campaigning hard down the stretch. Keown wins.
Incumbent Jim Marshall has run so far away from his Democrat agenda that he has to keep his drivers license in his front pocket to remember who he is….and that is a leftist Pelosi-ite. Austin Scott has done a great job of tying Marshall to his “sneer-less” leader and has grown a double digit lead. By a surprisingly large margin, and to the chagrin of the Macon duo who tried to get his divorce records unsealed, Scott wins.
John Barrow is another “Blue Dog” who has publicly denounced the statist legislation of the O-Team, while privately sending out campaign materials boasting of the Metro sexual in Chief’s endorsement. Ray McKinney, whom Barrow has out raised 9-1, has ridden the discontent with the O-ministration and the record unemployment to stay close. We’re expecting rain tomorrow, which could keep the “rent-a-voters” at home. McKinney pulls the upset – winner, McKinney.
In Other House Races:
CD-1 – Kingston over Harris
CD-3 – Westmoreland over Sanders
CD-4 – Johnson over Carter
CD-5 – Lewis over Little
CD-7 – Woodall over Heckman
CD-10 – Broun over Edwards
CD-13 – Scott over Crane
That will give the House a 10-4 Republican slant as far as Georgia is concerned.
Other Statewide Elections:
Secretary of State – Kemp over Sinkfield
Attorney General – Olens over Hodges
State School Superintendent – Barge over Martin
Ag. Commissioner – Black over Powell
Insurance Commissioner – Hudgens over Squires