In a live fantasy football football draft, which in my opinion is the only kind of fantasy draft to participate in, none of that autopick stuff for me, if you are slated to pick late in the first round of a 10 or 12 team fantasy football league, you should probably pass on all the leftover running backs.
Hear me out, here running back afficianados. If you are drafting late in the first round of your fantasy draft, the Chris Johnsons and Adrian Peterson’s are not just gone, but loooong gone.
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the NFL has become a passing league. Throwing the football is no longer a passing fancy, but a way of life for most NFL teams.
In 2009, there were a record number of 4,000 passers for a single season. Even Eli Manning hit the 4,000 yard mark in passing yards.
Therefore, if you are drafting late in the first round of your fantasy football draft, by all means, draft Aaron Rodgers if he is still available in the 7-10 slots. Rodgers was the highest scorer in fantasy football in 2009 and figures to do just as well, if not better in 2010.
The one exception I can see for not taking Rodgers is if you are in one of those Mickey Mouse leagues that pay only 4 points for a passing touchdown. I avoid those leagues as much as possible. Think about it. Does the NFL award only 4 points for a passing touchdown? No and neither should fantasy football leagues. Period.
With most NFL teams adopting the running back by committee approach, seemingly more every season, that’s all the more reason to draft Rodgers or Drew Brees late in the first round of your draft.
Rodgers and Brees have proven to be very durable other than that shoulder injury Brees suffered a few years ago in San Diego. That’s another reason to draft a QB late in the first round. QBs are less likely to suffer injuries than running backs.
As part of the strategy, in a serpentine fantasy football draft, which is how almost all yearly fantasy football drafts are conducted, since you picked late in the 1st round, you will pick early in the 2nd round. That’s when you pounce on your #1 running back.
Between Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, and maybe Ryan Mathews, at least one of those guys should be available early in the 2nd round.
I have seen Randy Moss and Andre Johnson taken in the 1st round of a lot of fantasy drafts so far. I personally don’t believe in drafting receivers in the 1st round due to the inconsistent production from wideouts. Even the best WRs and TEs will have games with little to no stats.
What happens to Moss’ numbers if Tom Brady goes down to an injury? That’s right, Moss’ number of catches and TDs plummet.
There are always receivers who come out of nowhere to post big fantasy football numbers every season. In 2009, the best two were Miles Austin of Dallas and Steve Smith of the Giants. If you don’t get the receivers you want in rounds 3-8, watch the waiver wire closely once the 2010 season starts.
If you are going to be weak at any position on your fantasy football roster, you can get by at WR more than QB or running back for sure.
In my next installment, I will discuss drafting in the middle of your fantasy football draft. thanks for reading and good luck with your fantasy team!