Two national polls, Gallup and Rasmussen, have provided an indication of just how big the political tsunami scheduled to hit on Tuesday, Nov. 2, election day 2010, is. The indication is that the tsunami will be huge.
How huge? Remember the scene from the film “Deep Impact,” when the piece of the comet fell into the Atlantic Ocean, creating a wave that inundated the East Coast of the United States? That huge, except that it will wash over all of the United States and will take down many Democratic elected officials who hitherto had expected to be reelected easily until they retired or died in office.
The Gallup Poll shows a party preference of 55 percent Republican and 40 percent Democrat in the generic ballot. That means, when asked, likely voters suggested that by a 15 percent margin, they would vote for a Republican over a Democrat.
“It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.”
Rasmussen is showing similar results, with 51 percent of likely voters preferring Republicans and 39 percent of likely voters preferring Democrats. “If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s.”
Rasmussen cautions, though, that the vote will represent more a repudiation of the Democrats, especially President Obama, than an endorsement of Republicans. The American people are angry with Democrats for the persistent economic slowdown, for ramming health care reform through public opposition, and for a multitude of other sins. However the vast Republican majorities are going to be elected under probation. The Republicans will have to perform, not necessarily to enact things, since Barack Obama will still have the veto pen, but to at least try to show a willingness to adhere to the small-government principles that now seem to prevail among American voters.
The 2010 election will set the stage for the 2012 campaign. If Barack Obama is seen to be an obstacle to changes that the American people will show that they desire and demand in 2010, President Obama will fall. However, if the President shows a little flexibility, is actually willing to make deals and compromise, instead of defining those things as agreeing totally with him, then he has a chance. Time will only tell.
Sources: Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday, Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad, Gallup Poll, October 31st, 2010
Generic Congressional Ballot, Rasmussen Reports, November 1st, 2010