With a view out across the Mission to Twin Peaks, I feel that I live in a sort of ivory tower, and don’t claim to have the feel of the political pulse even of my block, let alone the precinct, district, or city. I had not voted yet last weekend when I was questioned by a Fields Poll interviewer, but did so at the start of the week (in the City Hall basement).
The Field Poll results and, indeed even the Rasmussen poll with its 4-5% Republican bias, suggests that Meg Whitman has failed to buy the governorship. The $140+ of her own money she has spent might be considered a bit of stimulus to the state economy, at least to its Republican consultants and the media who have sold her time or space. Not that Jerry Brown has coat-tails. I wish that the Field Poll provided cross-tabulations of approval/disapproval by voting for. I told he pollster that I approved of only one of the four candidates for statewide office I was planning to vote for – and disapproved all four of their opponents. This Field Poll didn’t ask about approval of the lame-duck Republican governor. The terminated Terminator’s approval ratings are so low that his endorsement would be a liability and he has not endorsed a candidate for the job.
Congress: It looks like Nancy Pelosi will cease to be Speaker of the House, but I can’t conceive her losing her seat as my congressional representative. A lot of money from somewhere has gone into advertising for her opponent. We get mailings in both English and Chinese, and even in Chinese the mailings for John Dennis don’t mention that he is the Republican candidate. In the Chinese ones, he advertises that his blonde daughter attends the Chinese American International School while seeking to “fully fund our education at local levels.” (How does a Congressman do that, I wonder.) In English, but not Chinese, he presents himself as anti-war and pro-gay marriage, attempting to outflank Pelosi to the left.
Ballot propositions: Prop. 19 will do well in my precinct. The statewide pollings have significant differences between robopolls and live interviews, especially for male interviewees. I think this goes beyond male growers and distributors whose profits would be reduced opposing it, and don’t have a prediction on passage.
I do predict that the MUNI operators’ work rules, which they were unwilling to give up, are so resented that even other city workers are voting for Proposition G and that it will pass. A lot of money and all our elected officials have worked against proposition B, which will probably be defeated.
And who will be our next supervisor in district 10? De facto, there are two-way races in district 2, three-way ones in districts 6 and 8 and chaos here. There are 22 candidates, and I predict that it will take 19 rounds of elimination of rankings to determine the winter. All the absentee votes and election-day ones must be tabulated before turning to the #2 choices of those whose #1 choice finished 22nd, and on and on and on.
The most mailings have come from the campaign of Lynette Sweet, whose tax problems militate against her succeeding. The downtown-backed Steve Moss has been hit by a quotation from him that he was moving into the district to run for supervisor and would move back out if he lost.
The positive campaign literature has come from Chris Jackson and Tony Kelly. (We have not received anything – in any language – from the campaign of Visitacion Valley Chinese-speaking candidate Marlene Tran… who is supporting white Potrero Hill resident Tony Kelly as a #2 choice.)
So, although the election is over as far as voting in my household, there is much suspense about some outcomes, locally as well as nationally.