As a former political advisor, I am often asked to comment on elections. In the upcoming election for Michigan’s 13th congressional district, I predict that Democrat Hansen Clarke will be the winner over Republican John Hauler for a multitude of reasons.
Michigan’s 13th congressional district has voted in a Democrat for their seat in 33 out of 47 elections. In fact, there has not been a Republican that has sat in the seat of Michigan’s 13th congressional district since Howard Coffin moved out of the office to make way for George O’Brien in January of 1949. This voting history puts Democrat Hansen Clarke strongly over Republican John Hauler.
Hansen Clarke Political History
Hansen Clarke served in the Michigan House of Representatives from 1990 until 1992. He was reelected in 1998, and served there until he was elected to the State Senate in 2002.
He is regularly seen on local TV, and is portrayed through the news as a politician who is able to get the job done no matter what the odds. More than once, he has appealed to moderates, and Republicans alike, by countering some of the legislation that was supported by Michigan Governor Jenny Granholm (Democrat) that he did not support. Expect this to be remembered in November.
Expect also that there will be mention during the closing of the election for Michigan’s 13th congressional district about how he donated his infamous long hair to Locks of Love, the non-profit group that makes wigs for sick children. This act made Hansen Clarke a dear of the local media outlets.
John Hauler Political History
To this point, Republican nominee for Michigan’s 13th congressional district, John Hauler, does not have any general political history. He has worked as an organizer, but has never held elected public office.
Media representation of John Hauler could be considered as minimal, at best. As of the writing of this article, the only strong coverage that he has was when he won the Republican nomination for the seat. The little push that he has had through the media has always been followed by the fact that he has not held public office.
Reasons for Prediction
If the election were to be the day after the writing of this article, John Hauler would have minimum support in the polls. Since the media has neglected to cover him as a valid opponent for Hansen Clarke, his name will not be fresh in the minds of the voters. If you couple the facts that Hansen Clarke has been gaining more and more media attention over the years, and the fact that Michigan’s 13th congressional district is stalwartly Democrat, John Hauler does not have much of a chance.
When the Republican Party came to the doorstep of John Hauler, they knew that he would not have much of a chance of winning against Hansen Clarke. They came to him with the hopes that they might be able to build his name for an election that might be down the road. While there re many strong Republicans that could have been pushed to the front, the Republicans did not want a strong name tied in an election that was almost a guaranteed loss.
Election Websites for Candidates:
Wikipedia: Michigan’s 13th Congressional District