BCS projections as well as bowl projections could have some schools pretty happy. Early 2010 bowl projections (and BCS projections) are stemming from the weekend of upsets we just saw, where Boise State, Oklahoma State, and LSU all fell to teams they needed to beat. All three teams lost their best chance at making it into one of the BCS bowl games this year, and with it, the projections for where the schools might play their coming bowl game has also changed. All three schools will still play in a bowl game, but gone are the chances to be in one of the biggest.
Boise State is going to take the biggest hit in the polls, as they have now lost their chance at a BCS bowl invite (presumably) by falling to conference rival Nevada on Friday night. Then LSU fell to Arkansas on Saturday, taking away their second place finish in the SEC, and with it the best chance that they had to make a BCS bowl game as an at-large team. Losing to Arkansas bumps the Razorbacks up into their spot, with Alabama now finishing fourth in that particular SEC division. Oklahoma State also fell, losing their shot at the 2010 Big 12 Championship Game by losing to division (and state) rival Oklahoma.
So what does this all mean to the best of the week 14 BCS rankings? Well some of the BCS projections include Stanford moving up to third in the BCS standings, pushing TCU out of that third spot due to a very weak strength of schedule. The only loss for Stanford this season was to No. 1 Oregon, which should also be able to hold on to their top spot by beating Oregon State this weekend. No. 2 Auburn just barely escaped a tough Alabama team, so they should maintain that spot in the rankings no matter what.
Then we have the mess that is the rest of the one loss BCS teams. Wisconsin crushed another opponent, and should be No. 5 at the least, with Ohio State right behind them in the rankings. Wisconsin already beat Ohio State, so they will get the Big Ten automatic slot in a BCS bowl game, and that could mean that Ohio State then gets invited into one of the big games as an at-large team. As things shake out, the bowls get to select their own at-large teams, and that might mean that Stanford gets left out in the cold if they think that having Ohio State would mean more fans buy tickets.
There are basically four at-large spots for the BCS bowls, and if we assume that TCU is held out of the BCS National Championship Game, they will undoubtedly get one of the invites. That leaves just three spots for Stanford, Ohio State, LSU, Arkansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Nevada, and Boise State to fight for. It is out of their hands though, as all of these teams have already seen their regular seasons come to an end, and now they have to wait and see who the bowl games decide to invite.