In 1994, the first midterm election of the first Clinton Administration, a striking and completely unexpected outcome revealed itself. Democrats held majorities for more than 60 years, minus Ike’s first term House majority and a brief two year Republican majority in ’47-’49. In 1993 Bill put Hillary in charge of health reform. It was rejected by the citizens. And the first available opportunity to alter the power structure of DC, the 1994 first Clinton midterm election, what happened?
Out of nowhere, and with almost no inkling whatsoever, Republicans picked up 54 seats in the House in the midterm elections held on November 8, 1994. The big gain was not predicted by any politically astute, minus of course those advocating for their hopeful wishes, a la Nancy Pelosi insisting even today that Democrats will maintain the majority in the House. Lacking the cheerleader element, no in the know political guru had any clue of the win the Republican’s would pick up.
So how then, in this hyper partisan year of discontent, economic downturn and clear progressive usurpation of the Constitutional theory of “the consent of the governed” can anyone predict anything less than a Republican landslide? I mean, c’mon. In ’94 we did not have Internet as we know it today. New media had not yet emerged mostly, yet somehow the discontent with Hillarycare clearly manifest in the midterm election. Given the history, how can anyone deny the inevitable? See why an historian would be rightly indignant at this nonsense?
The coming tsunami of voter discontent will be profound in my opinion. It will be ugly for the left to accept. If 1994 could sneak up on even the professional pundits, then how can the plethora of voter discontent now not relate to a similar outcome for the Democrats, only more pronounced this time as voters being angry is at all time highs?
I went out on a limb about 2 months ago and predicted the Republican’s would pick up at least 70 seats in the House. At the time I was, to my knowledge, the only one in the ether predicting such a large swing. Only now do we have the professional pundits and pollsters coming out with predictions anywhere near similar to mine, again made by me weeks and weeks ago.
I have been asked where I came up with such a “wild fantasy prediction” as one lefty confided to me? I explained I reached my conclusion for exactly the reasons I have laid out in this article – history! I know many tire of my constant hitting them over the head with history – perhaps more a bludgeoning on my part – but reality is history has always been the teacher. I am not smarter than anyone else, but I do study history. When I want to know how “X” is likely to end up in the future I go back and look how “X” turned out historically. On a general basis, history is the best predictor of future outcome. It’s really just that simple.
Therefore, today’s political situation is akin to 1994. Health care overhauls preceded both midterm elections. It was unpopular then, as it is now. Difference now is only worse because instead of dropping it when public opinion was clearly against it, this crop of progressives shoved it down our throats well over the loud and clear objections of the citizens. So if Dems lost 54 seats and the majority in 1994, and this is twice as bad, will they lose twice as many seats?
Remember, there are two key elements here. 2010, like 1994 was on the heels of unwanted health overhaul, so that correlation is strong and indicative of future outcome. Now add in the element that practically NO ONE predicted or expected the sweeping from majorities of Democrats in 1994, and contrast it to now.
Now voter discontent is exceptionally well known, vocal and clearly manifest. How can any intelligent observer, and I mean HONEST observer and not a partisan with a hopeful outcome, not see the handwriting on the wall? If the ’94 sweeping of Democrats from the majority snuck up on an entire nation, how big will the Democrat deflation be this time around? Who can say, but I am staking my reputation on at least 70 seats. Of course my reputation and a $5.00 bill is worth five bucks, tops, so….
My prediction of a 70 seat swing is not “hopeful partisan wishes” but instead based on observation of trends and impetus. The hopeful partisan in me would love to predict Republican’s pick up 112 seats for a “veto proof” majority that not only stops, but in fact reverses Obama’s deeds.
We’ll see if it was a gutsy call on my part, but now it seems the professional class of punditry and pollsters are following along in my wake. Nice!