Summary:
MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R. Possibly vulnerable: MN-01 (D)
MN-06 (R)
District:MN-01
Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Tim Walz (D)
VoteView 190
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-33 over Brian Davis
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents Randy Demmer
Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)
Assessment As of 9/30, Walz has over $800K COH Demmer has $230K. A recent poll had Walz up 47-42
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District:MN-02
Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Kline (R)
VoteView 397
First elected 2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Steve Sarvi
2006 margin 56-40
2004 margin 56-40
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents Shelly Madore
Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)
Assessment This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010. As of 9/30, Kline has $840K COH, Madore has little. Safe for Republicans this year.
District:MN-03
Location Suburbs of the twin cities map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Erik Paulsen (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Jim Meffert
Demographics 6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)
Assessment This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic. But Paulsen has over $1 million COH, Meffert about $100K. Probably safe for Republicans
District:MN-04
Location St. Paul and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Betty McCollum (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 2000
2008 margin 69-31 over Ed Matthews
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 57-33
Obama margin 64-32
Bush margin 2004 34-57
Current opponents Teresa Collett
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. As of 9/30, McCollum has just almost $200K COH, Collett has little.
District:MN-05
Location map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Keith Ellison (D)
VoteView 11
First elected 2006
2008 margin 71-22 over Barb White
2006 margin 56-21
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Joel Demos
Demographics 40th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. As of 9/30, Ellison has over $1 million COH, Demos has little
District:MN-06
Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)
VoteView 399
First elected 2006
2008 margin 46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson. It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).
2006 margin 50-42 over John Binkowski
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Tarryl Clark
Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Bachmann is vulnerable. She’s insane. As of 9/30, Bachman had $3.5 million COH and Clark $900K. This is a Republican district, but it’s not super-Republican. Clark could win
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District:MN-07
Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Collin Peterson (D)
VoteView 214
First elected 1990
2008 margin 72-28 over Glen Menze
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents Lee Byberg
Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Safe. OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money. As of 9/30, he has $800K COH, Menze has little. A recent poll has Peterson up by 30 points
District:MN-08
Location map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative James Oberstar (D)
VoteView 107
First elected 1974
2008 margin 68-32 over Michael Cummins
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Chip Cravaack
Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe. Oberstar has $600 K COH, Cravaack about $130K. A recent Republican poll had Oberstar up by 3.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser’s polling diaries on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
