NFL picks for Week 5 are using conventional wisdom. Yet this means the Week 5 NFL picks will probably be mostly wrong. Every week, experts have to pretend to be surprised when multiple upsets, and near upsets, take place each Sunday. Therefore, the bigger underdog an opponent is, the better chance they seemingly have to win. That has held form for the first four weeks, although many of the picks this week are in lock step anyway.
Although the Bills may be the league’s worst team, and the Jaguars are coming off an upset of the Colts, it is being treated as a pick-’em game. Likewise, the Rams have actually gotten to .500, and are facing the winless Lions today, yet come in as an underdog. In addition, the .500 Eagles aren’t favored to beat the winless 49ers, with Michael Vick gone.
The Week 5 picks actually have winless teams favored, which is probably in line with the parity of 2010. However, that lesson isn’t being applied to every matchup. The Bengals are solid favorites over the Bucs, despite being up and down each week, and the Falcons are considered a safe bet over the Browns, despite needing to come back at home against the 49ers.
The unbeaten Chiefs are being given little chance against the Colts, although Indianapolis isn’t quite itself so far. The Ravens are riding high after beating the Steelers, which may leave them more vulnerable to the Broncos. The Texans appear safe against the Giants, yet their last home game was an embarrassing loss to a struggling NFC East team.
Other NFL picks are counting on struggling powerhouses to finally coast. The Saints are favored over the Cardinals, although they have not been dominant all season. The Cowboys were declared dead two weeks ago, but are now considered back on track, although the Titans could change all that today. The Packers have had a hard time the last two weeks, but they are figured to get back on track against the Redskins.
Experts have been wrong much of the way, and even when they’ve been right, it hasn’t been by much. Which teams will come out of nowhere to defy the NFL picks for Week 5? The Chiefs have an opening to truly prove themselves, while teams like the Eagles, Giants, Titans and Broncos are actually in upset mode.
At some point, most picks will actually have to be right one week. But that’s likely what they did on the last few Sundays, and it didn’t often turn out that way. Will the same be said of this Sunday in a little bit?
ESPN- “NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 5”