Week one of the 2010 NFL Season is upon us, and it also ushers in a start of a fun series of articles that will help you predict winners NFL games each week using a power rankings program devised by JAMcLynne. These NFL power rankings were created using JAMcLynne’s computer with specially designed software for creating NFL power ranks.
JAMcLynne’s NFL power rankings software takes into account past team performance, overall team playing ability, along with numerous other parameters to create a measure of strength for each team. The program uses mathematical equations to predict a team’s relative power rank when compared to other teams in the NFL. If you play the stock market, you know that past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Such is the case with these NFL power rankings.
For the first week or two of the NFL season, expect these NFL power rankings to be heavily weighted towards the 2009 season. The NFL power ranking program does take into account player changes for the 2010 season, as well as some parameters of player performance in the 2010 NFL preseason. JAMcLynne plans on creating his set of NFL power rankings for release on each Tuesday night of the upcoming 2010 NFL season.
The computer program that predicts NFL power ranks has been created so that a separation of 4 points in the NFL power ranking score could be considered as 1 point difference on the field. For example, pretend that the New Orleans Saints were to play the St Louis Rams this week. Note that there is a difference of 70 points in the Saints and Rams NFL Power Rank: 104 minus 35 equals 69. Their difference in NFL Power Rank score is 69. Dividing 69 power rank score by 4 gives about 17 points to the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans Saints should beat the St Louis Rams on the field by 17 points based on their NFL power rank.
The power ranks scores that are included for each match up are the raw scores produced by the program. These raw scores will differ somewhat in from this previous subjective NFL Power Ranks article since I used my own judgment in creating that list of NFL teams.
Football games are played by humans on the field. No computer can accurately predict how a team will perform. The computer does not take into account weather, injuries, or the stupidity of players who make mental mistakes on the field while playing in the game. These rankings should be used for entertainment purposes only.
NFL Predictions for Week One
Produced by JAMcLynne’s NFL Power Ranking Computer Program:
NFL Week One Winner in BOLD
MIN (90.54) at NO (104.73)
New Orleans wins by 3. The unpredictable factor here is going to be how well Brett Favre plays. Will his ankle hold out? Will the Vikings come together quickly enough as a team to take on the 2009 Super Bowl Champions Saints and win?
CLE (38.61) at TB (42.03)
A pair of NFL power ranking bottom dwelling teams square off. Home field advantage tips the scale to Tampa Bay, who just might skate past the Browns.
MIA (57.38) at BUF (44.04)
The Miami Dolphins rushing game should be just enough to overpower the Bills by a little less than a field goal according to the NFL power rankings software. Personally, I suspect an even greater point difference with Miami dominating.
CIN (68.74) at NE (87.23)
Terrel Owens will not going to help the Bengals chances in week one of the 2010 NFL season. Patriots win by a touchdown. I do think that the Bengals should climb in the NFL power ranks as the season progresses, despite the loss in week one.
IND (102.01) at HOU (64.96)
The real score should be a little closer than the computer predicts, but I suspect the Colts will still win by a touchdown.
DEN (59.28) at JAC (60.10)
Jacksonville wins, but only due to a home field advantage, according to the NFL Power Rankings software. It still could go either way. A wild card winner if Tebow gets any action.
ATL (70.37) at PIT (74.54)
Atlanta travels to Steeler country. The NFL power rankings software predicts that the Falcons lose a close one. The Steelers will be without Ben Roethlisberger, so it could still be advantage Atlanta.
OAK (37.37) at TEN (62.14)
Tennessee should have no problem overpowering Oakland at home by a touchdown.
CAR (53.03) at NYG (73.21)
Carolina will be in awe of the New Meadowlands Stadium, but not by much. Giant eek out a win by a field goal.
DET (36.56) at CHI (61.89)
The NFL power ranking software placed Detroit near the bottom of the heap for this week’s edition. I suspect the score will be a little closer in this one, but the Bears should come out on top by at least a touch down.
ARI (64.02) at STL (35.68)
Arizona is rating a little higher than they should. Expect their rankings to fall further as the season progresses. They still should be able to squeak by the Rams to open the season.
GB (76.73) at PHI (78.41)
Home field advantage goes to the Eagles in week one of the 2010 NFL season. The Eagles just may slip by the Packers.
SF (55.18) at SEA (49.44)
San Francisco are an improved team this year. They will get the win when they visit Seattle. Expect the 49ers NFL power rank to climb as the season progresses.
DAL (80.12) at WAS (58.74)
Dallas improved this year, and Washington got worse in terms of the player production. Dallas wins by a touchdown.
BAL (75.11) at NYJ (66.08)
Baltimore will spoil the Jets opening night party at the New Meadowlands Stadium by about a field goal.
SD (91.85) at KC (47.25)
JAMcLynne’s NFL power rankings program produced a lopsided result for the San Diego Charger and Kansas City Chiefs game with the Chargers being an 11 point favorite. The Chargers-Chiefs game could have a little closer score than what the computer predicts.
Here is the raw output that ranks the teams from top to bottom. This output was created from JAMCLynne’s NFL Power Ranking Program:
1. New Orleans Saints (104.73)
2. Indianapolis Colts (102.01
3. San Diego Chargers (91.85)
4. Minnesota Vikings (90.54)
5. New England Patriots (87.23)
6. Dallas Cowboys (80.12)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (78.41)
8. Green Bay Packers (76.73)
9. Baltimore Ravens (75.11)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (74.54)
11. New York Giants (73 .21)
12. Atlanta Falcons (70.37)
13. Cincinnati Bengals (68.74)
14. New York Jets (66.08)
15. Houston Texans (64.96)
16. Arizona Cardinals (64.02)
17. Tennessee Titans (62.14)
18. Chicago Bears (61.89)
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (60.10)
20. Denver Broncos (59.28)
21. Washington Redskins (58.74)
22. Miami Dolphins (57.38)
23. San Francisco 49ers (55.18)
24. Carolina Panthers (53.03)
25. Seattle Seahawks (49.44)
26. Kansas City Chiefs (47.25)
27. Buffalo Bills (44.04)
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.03)
29. Cleveland Browns (38.61)
30. Oakland Raiders (37.37)
31. Detroit Lions (36.56)
32. St Louis Rams (35.68)
I hope you have enjoyed looking these rankings over as much as I have enjoyed writing the program to come up with the numbers. Feel free to let me know what you think of the numbers. Do you feel that any teams ranked too low or too high? Be sure to check back next Tuesday when I make week one results available, and will have a new set of rankings for week two of the 2010 NFL season.