The next terrorist attack on the United States will occur in a multifaceted covert and non-covert manner. It will utilize conventional methods of attack and non-conventional methods. The attack will be in response to American response to protect American interests in a volatile region of the world. These attacks will be coordinated long lasting and will be state sponsored, by states that have limited knowledge and resources, but the ability to deliver a WMD attack on US soil.
In 2012 after the United States and other coalition countries leave Iraq there will be an increase in violence in Iraq. This increase may cause the Iraqi government to fail or worse to fall totally from power. The insurgency into a failing Iraq will be from both the Shai and Sunni Muslims located in Iran, Syria and Lebanon. The Islamic community will be eager to regain control of the second holiest site in the Islamic world, Baghdad, from what they consider to be a US puppet regime.
This volatility will jeopardize world businesses that have established themselves in Iraq since the American occupation. These businesses will pressure world leaders to once again occupy Iraq and put an end to the insurgency from Iran, Syria and Lebanon for good. The American government will slowly build up an occupation force in the Middle East, most likely in Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait, in an effort to regain security. However, this will be insufficient and create a situation that small time terrorist organizations will start conducting small attacks on US forces.
These attacks in turn will cause the United States and other world communities to increase a larger presence in the Middle East. Once a link is established between the governments of Iran, Syria and Lebanon to these small terrorists’ organizations is established, US and World Forces will invade Iran, Syria and Lebanon. This will create the situation where terrorist will attack in all available means on US soil. They will also attack other countries that are supporting US interests in the Middle East. But for the purpose of this study we will focus on attacks on US soil.
The following are a list of assumptions that are made for this scenario:
1. Iran has a fully operational nuclear reactor.
2. Iran, Syria and Lebanon still have close ties with Al Qaeda and Hezbollah.
3. Iran has continued to maintain it biological and chemical weapons programs.
4. Russia will not be support Iran and will remain neutral throughout this campaign.
5. Israel will not remain neutral and act in support of US and world forces.
6. US borders with Mexico and Canada remain porous with limited resources available to secure the borders.
7. American and Coalition Forces have invaded Iran.