This is the condensed version of my regular predictions against the spread series that has minor summaries of each of the games. I’ve gone 20-5 in the past two weeks on my straight picks and am currently leading the AC Sports NFL pick ’em contest, which can be viewed HERE.
With so much parity and so many close games, I’d almost always recommend taking the points in games if they’re over three unless the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and sometimes if the Buffalo Bills were involved.
Not many simple picks this week. The two picks that I have the most confidence in are the Indianapolis Colts defeating the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants defeating the Dallas Cowboys by at least 17. The Cowboys have already imploded and will be operating under a new head coach in Jason Garrett. The Bengals could implode at any second and shouldn’t be eager to face Peyton Manning following a loss.
My upset pick of the week features the Cleveland Browns against the New York Jets. The Jets were 3-0 last season before a mid-season slump put them at 4-6. After narrowly escaping Detroit with a victory, the Jets appear to be in another mid-season collapse. The Browns have played competitive football all season but McCoy has eliminated the mistakes that Delhomme and Wallace made to lose games.
The three games that I had the most difficulty with were the Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, and Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons.
The Jaguars are incredibly inconsistent and, while they’ve had two weeks to prepare, I believe the Texans are going to be desperate. With two of the NFL’s worst passing defenses, fans should expect a shootout (not blackout) in Jacksonville this weekend.
The Vikings and Bears was a tossup. In the end, Adrian Peterson has had some of his best games against the Bears and the Vikings are just too talented. Of course, having a coach like Brad Childress can eliminate the usefulness of that talent…
The Ravens and Falcons was one I could regret following Thursday Night. The Falcons are one of the best home teams in the NFL as they’re built for dome play. Still, I picked the Ravens here because their defense is usually ready to play these big games. Matt Ryan doesn’t have much experience in these type of contests against such high quality opponents, and Joe Flacco is on a streak (eight touchdowns, no interceptions in past three games) that could be damning to the Falcons 26th ranked passing defense.
Bold teams are my straight selections. Teams with the points are my spread picks. Good luck!
OVER 43.5 Baltimore Ravens (+1) at Atlanta Falcons
OVER 43 Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
OVER 43 Detroit Lions (+3) at Buffalo Bills
UNDER 36 Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
OVER 40.5 Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Chicago Bears
OVER 37.5 New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3)
OVER 47 Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Indianapolis Colts
OVER 50 Houston Texans (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
OVER 43 Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Denver Broncos
OVER 45.5 Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-14)
OVER 41 Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Arizona Cardinals
UNDER 38 St. Louis Rams (+6) at San Francisco 49ers
OVER 45 New England Patriots (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
OVER 42 Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3)
REFERENCES
Coopers Picks, Accessed November 9, 2010 NFL Stats Accessed November 9, 2010
