Andre Johnson – 3 catches for 33 yards. And that period at the end of the sentence is a PERIOD. It was a crazy week at the WR level with studs coming away with so-so games (Brandon Marshall) and sleepers emerging as potential pick-ups (Hakeem Nicks and Legadu Naanee). I have one team that is in a 10 team 2 QB league and I started Marshall, White, and Johnson in the WR slots. Are you kidding me? Roddy White was the only doing damage though the PPR format helped with Marshall. Bottom line is that week 1 is under our belts and we now our preseason jitters out of the way.
Overall it was just another week in the NFL. But the important thing as we line up our week 2 players is that we actually have some hard data to go on for our moves. Sure it’s only one game but it is about as accurate as looking at last year’s stats. Bye weeks are still a few weeks away so we need to make changes based on hunches and week 1 stats rather than out of necessity.
And in case you are wondering how I did last week…
3-11 in ESPN Leagues and just as miserable in my Fanball Leagues…
Now that you are impressed with my ability to make sound picks I give you the 2010 week 2 fantasy football RB keepers and sleepers:
1) Steve Smith (NYG) – Word on the street is Hakeem Nicks is banged up and visibly slowed by his injury. With brother Peyton coming to town, look for Eli to try to impress by hitting Smith several times. I’m just guessing around 12-15 catches for 120 yards and a TD. That is regardless of whether Nicks plays or not. And by the way it’s not like Smith was a slouch in week 1 either, 5 catches for 43 yards and nothing over 20 yards. I expect that to change in week 2.
2) Wes Welker – My ups for Welker have grown tremendously for him this past summer. The guy is incredible. Randy Moss will be playing with Darelle Revis and that leaves Welker open to do what Welker does best. Slot up and catch about 12-15 balls to move the chains with maybe a touchdown. I’m not expecting a score but I think his numbers beat Moss and it’s over 100 yards. Excellent player.
3) Dwayne Bowe – The Chiefs look decent, not great, not good, but decent. Cassel threw for JaMarcus Russell numbers during week 1 but still found the end zone. Bowe is too gifted to not get the red zone looks. I think a TD and about 75 yards are in line for our misunderstood late round pick. Either way it should be a close game and the Browns should put up somewhat of a fight.
4) Santana Moss – The Redskins won a great battle with a reeling team last week. This week they face certain doom by playing the high flying and recently high running Houston offense. The will run and they will pass. When they pass look for Chris Cooley and Santana Moss to reap the benefits. I think Moss has one of his typical long bomb plays for a TD and a few more receptions to push him over the century mark. This game will probably be a lot closer than people think… But Houston will still win.
5) Andre Johnson – After his truly miserable performance (though not entirely his fault) I’ve got to include the #1 overall receiver on this list. Don’t get cute and try to trade Johnson. Schaub will make up for it and I think a huge rebound game is coming up. Close to 200 yards and 2 scores. Crazy I know but I think the Texans cool it on the run (it won’t be as effective this game) and take to the air. Owen Daniels is closer to full strength and will try to keep pass defenses looking low. Call it a hunch but I think Schaub is going to make an extra effort to get Johnson his numbers.
1) Jabar Gaffney – Some guy named Lloyd led receivers with 110 yards and he’s probably the name you thought you would see if I threw in a Denver receiver. Only one TD last week through the air and Denver is more of a balanced team than they were in the past. Kyle Orton is actually a pretty decent QB and he’s going to air it out against a Seahawks team that wasn’t adequately tested lasts week. Gaffney gets another TD and also closer to a 100 yards this time (maybe a little over).
2) Danny Amendola – This guy is a Wes Welker clone with a decent QB who’ll need to get rid of the ball when his other receivers are covered. Sam Bradford will be looking to the slot and the TE. Amendola will rack up about 100 yards with a 78.65% chance of a TD (using a very precise TD equation algorithm that I developed with MIT dropouts). If you participate in a long term league then target this guy. He will get close to 1000 yards this season. Watch.
3) Nate Washington – Facing his former team in week 2. Washington is a great deep threat and Vince Young will have several opportunities to throw to him with Chris Johnson garnering the majority of the defense’s attention. I see a similar performance from Washington but I’ll go out on a limb (like all my sleepers) and say he gets over a hundred yards. I think people underestimate the Titans and their total package offense. Call me crazy but Kenny Brit just doesn’t seem to be catching on and Nate Washington is a proven threat.
4) Greg Camarillo – Brett Favre was interviewed last week and made it a point to say how good Camarillo was – twice. Percy Harvin is officially a game time decision and Sidney Rice is hanging out with his agent. That leaves Camarillo to torment his old team. My guess is Favre hits him often and early. ADP will get more touches to keep the defense guessing but when Favre drops back he’s going to look for the TE short and Camarillo long. 2 TDs and 150 yards. There you have it!
5) Mike Williams (TB) – Kellen Winslow hasn’t practiced all week and Freeman will chuck it as well as any QB in the league (quantity not quality mind you). The Bucs will be competitive and will hit Mike Williams repeatedly. In fact Mike Williams will get Legadu Naanee numbers… EXACTLY. 110 yards and 1 TD. I mean if we are going to make predictions let’s get some moxie in there and up the ante. EXACTLY.
Well that’s it. Week 2 locks and you better get moving. Feel free to visit www.babybluemonkey.com. Leave me a comment or just say hi. Good luck for week 2 and we’ll have the picks down to a science by week 4 (byes).